Climate Change
Climate change at the heart of our quality of life
Tackling climate change is a key challenge for Hertfordshire, with a growing number of activities taking place within the county to contribute to the reduction of our carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and to prepare for the potential future impacts of climate change on the county's quality of life.
Average global temperatures have risen by nearly 0.8°C since 1900, with much of this (0.4°C) taking place over the past 25 years. Considering the fact that during the last major ice-age temperatures were around 5°C colder than those of today, it is apparent that seemingly small changes in temperature can create significant implications for our climate.
Global average air temperatures 1850 to 2007
Source: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia November 2008
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Future climate change and its impact on Hertfordshire's quality of life
Climate is defined by climate scientists as 'average weather in a particular location over a thirty year period' whilst 'weather' is what is occurring outside your window now2. Evidence produced by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) suggests that over the next 40 years our county may experience:
- 1-3°C rise in annual average daily temperatures
- Warmer, drier summers with 15-30% less rainfall
- Milder, wetter winters and up to 15% more rainfall
This change in climate is also predicted to herald an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events including:
- Heat waves and drought
- Severe winter storms and gale force winds
- Extreme rainfall events with more risk of flooding
Responding to Climate Change
Even if we stopped emitting all greenhouse gases tomorrow, the CO2 produced over the last century would still mean a certain amount of climate change will occur. As such it is necessary to understand how current actions will impact on Hertfordshire; both negatively and in the opportunities presented. We must introduce adaptation measures now whilst reducing the levels of CO2 produced. Reducing CO2 (mitigation) needs to be integral to a comprehensive response to prevent further and potentially irreversible climate change.
Climate change indicators
As climate change is a global issue, it is hard to find meaningful data to monitor changes at county level. However, by looking at meteorological records for Hertfordshire, as we have done here since 2006, such as temperature and precipitation (rain and snow) data, we can create a picture of long term climate trends. We can also measure the primary cause of climate change, CO2 emissions levels, within the county. These can be measured by a number of different methods explained below.
Indicator CC1a - Annual Mean Temperature
Both the long term Central England Temperature (CET) and annual average temperature records for Hertfordshire show warming trends, especially over the latter part of the 20th and early 21st century. Our county's temperature records show a good correlation with the CET, albeit with higher annual average temperatures. This is likely to be due to our close proximity to the London urban heat island and warmer climate regimes originating from Europe. In 2007 Hertfordshire's average mean temperature was 1.85°C higher than in 1977 whilst the Central England Temperature showed a difference of 1°C.
Indicator CC1 - Annual Mean Temperature
Source: Royston (ICENI) Weather Station November 2008 and Met Office Hadley Centre
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Indicator CC1b - Annual total precipitation
In contrast to the long term trend of rising annual average temperatures, no clear evidence was found of an increase in total annual precipitation levels, either nationally or in Hertfordshire. Average annual precipitation varies greatly across the UK, however, annual totals tend to mask long term seasonal trends. For example, UK winters have become wetter since the mid-nineteenth century and its summers are drier, particularly since the 1970s.
The important aspect revealed by this data is that Hertfordshire's annual average precipitation is considerably lower than averages in England and Wales. Positioned in the East of England, Hertfordshire lies outside of the path of most Atlantic depressions and their associated cloud, wind and rain3. With relatively low rainfalls, a growing population and water use levels 16% higher than the national average4, Hertfordshire is particularly susceptible to increased pressure on water resources, a problem which will be heightened by climate change.
Indicator CC1b - Annual total precipitation (Ppt)
Source: Royston (ICENI) Weather Station November 2008
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Hertfordshire's Contribution to Climate Change
For the third consecutive year we present two ways of assessing the county's CO2 emissions. Firstly the DEFRA Local and Regional CO2 Emissions Estimates are used to provide details of district emissions. Newly released 2005 and 2006 data is broken down into the sector of use (CC2a) whilst indicator CC2b presents the domestic sector CO2 emissions per person for each district.
Note: Although the data published in this year's report provides an update on the data published in 2006 and 2007, it is not directly comparable to previous editions of the Quality of Life Report. This is due to DEFRA's ongoing development of statistical methodology and source data. The 2005 data presented here replaces the 2005 data reported last year and is directly comparable to the 2006 data presented alongside it.
The second method (CC3) focuses on the CO2 emissions arising from the consumption of goods and services. It provides an indication of how Hertfordshire's lifestyles impact on climate change and we show this as a Carbon Footprint. This indicator takes a broader view of CO2 emissions, encompassing those produced by countries that the UK imports from for goods which are consumed by the county's households or businesses.
Note: Again, as explained above, because of ongoing development in statistical methodologies and source data the 2004 data published here is not directly comparable to 2001 data provided in the 2007 Quality of Life Report.
Indicator CC2a - CO2 Emissions by Sector
In 2005 county emissions totalled 6,738,000 tonnes across all sectors and 6,759,000 tonnes in 2006. Responsible for the largest contribution (40% of all emissions), to the county, the domestic sector grew from 2,673,000 tonnes in 2005 to 2,718,000 tonnes in 2006.
Geographically, the highest levels of CO2 emissions in Hertfordshire for 2005 and 2006 were produced in East Hertfordshire with 955,000 and 971,000 tonnes respectively. At 478,000, Three Rivers District Council produced the lowest amount in 2005 and in 2006 with 488,000 tonnes. Broxbourne Borough Council was second lowest with 487,000 and 490,000 tonnes respectively. With the exception of Dacorum and Broxbourne, all districts experienced a rise in CO2 emissions levels during 2005 and 2006.
Indicator CC2a - CO2 Emissions by Sector
Local and Regional Estimates of CO2 Emissions
Source: Department for Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) September 2008
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Indicator CC2b - Domestic Per Capita CO2 Emissions
To create a clearer picture of the contribution Hertfordshire households make to CO2 emissions from domestic sources we present the level of CO2 emissions per capita (person). In 2005 Hertsmere and Three Rivers had the highest emissions per capita in the county; at around 2.7 tonnes per person. In 2006, St Albans residents' reached the same level. Overall, six out of the county's ten districts produced more than the East of England regional average of 2.5 tonnes per person in 2005 and 2006.
Source: Department for Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) September 2008
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Indicator CC3 - Consumption-based CO2 Emissions - per capita Carbon Footprint
As climate change continues to rise up the political agenda, the term 'carbon footprint' is increasingly used within sustainable development discussions. Whilst there are a number of ways of arriving at this measurement, essentially its purpose is to provide a comprehensive account of greenhouse gases contributing to climate change. The carbon footprint measure uses a consumption perspective and aims to include all CO2 emissions associated with the consumption of a particular good or service in the UK, wherever they occur.
In 2004 Hertfordshire's CO2 emissions were over 7% higher than the national average of 12.98 tonnes per capita. Apart from Stevenage, at 11.76 tonnes per capita, all districts had footprints greater than the national average. Six out of ten districts even had rates higher than the regional average. St Albans, with 13.77 tonnes per capita, closely followed by East Hertfordshire, at 13.47 tonnes per capita, were the districts with the highest footprint. St Albans had amongst the largest footprint in the UK.
Indicator CC3 - Consumption-based CO2 Emissions
Source: Stockholm Environment Institute Resoucres and Energy Analysis Programme 2008
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Hertfordshire's response to climate change
Since tackling climate change is only successfully undertaken through collective action, the new Hertfordshire Climate Change Partnership (HCCP5) was set up in the county in July 2008. Bringing together the county's key organisations, HCCP is chaired by the University of Hertfordshire and is currently represented by all of the county's local authorities, the NHS, Hertfordshire Constabulary, Hertfordshire Prosperity, local utility providers as well as local voluntary organisations. HCCP is creating a Climate Change Strategy for the county, focussing on how we can adapt to the impacts of climate change, whilst developing mitigation actions to reduce CO2 emissions. HCCP has also adopted the responsibility for the county's target of a 9.1% to cut in CO2 emissions by 2010/11 as set out in the Hertfordshire Local Area Agreement.
Heating is just one of the factors in rising domestic CO2 emissions.
Climate Change Legislation
Significant progress was made in the UK government's efforts to tackle climate change in 2008. DECC, the Department for Energy and Climate Change, was set up to tackle energy security and climate change mitigation. The Climate Change Act was also passed.
The Climate Change Act is the world's first legally binding framework to tackle the causes and impacts of climate change. Working towards a tough target of 80% reductions in CO2 emissions by 2050 (based on 1990 levels) the Act requires a cut in domestic, industrial and commercial and road transport emissions. How best to limit on emissions from international aviation and shipping sources will also be considered set before 2012.
To work towards the long term target, 5 year carbon budgets will be set and all large and medium-sized companies, including public sector organisations, will be required to report on CO2 emissions. On the adaptation front, the government will be required to regularly assess the risk to the UK from climate change impacts. They will then have to publish and regularly report how sustainable adaptation will be addressed.
For more details on climate change legislation please see www.defra.gov.uk/environment/
Results of a study commissioned by HEF highlights the impacts of climate change in Hertfordshire’s health and social care services
Climate Change, Health and Adult Care Services
Ground-breaking research commissioned in 2008 by Hertfordshire Environmental Forum has revealed the implications climate change may have for health and social care services at a local level. The study, which was also funded and driven by the NHS Environment Group and Hertfordshire County Council, goes on to identify the relevant adaptation priorities for services for the county. Taking into account Hertfordshire's health profile, forecasted population growth and climate change, the greatest impacts on the county's health are most likely to centre around temperature rises including:
- More hot weather-related mortality and illnesses
- Increased incidence of food-borne illnesses
- Raised levels of aggression and confusion in those with learning difficulties or mental disabilities
- Greater incidents of allergies, skin and eye problems as a result of exposure to the sun
- Direct accident or injury from weather events were also found to be potentially significant for certain vulnerable groups.
The implications of the effects on human health could lead to increased demand in both general and more specialised services. This would increase pressure across the spectrum, from GP services and NHS Direct to Oncology. For the County Council, the greatest impacts on its Adult Care Services may come from potential growth in high temperature-related illnesses and mental health problems. Non-medical health and social care provision risks arising from climate change could include building, infrastructure and utilities maintenance and transportation. Not only will they need protection against warmer temperatures but they are also potentially at increased risk of flood.
Contact bethan.clemence@hertscc.gov.uk for a copy of the full report or more information.
1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2008 'Climate Change
2007, Synthesis Report', IPCC, Geneva, ISBN 92-9169-122-4
2 UK Climate Impacts Programme, 'A Local Climate Impacts Profile:
LCLIP,' www.ukcip.org.uk/images/stories/Pub_pdfs/lclip.pdf
3 Met Office 'Southern England: climate,' www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/so/
4 Three Valleys Water 'When was the last time you thought about your
water?' www.3valleys.co.uk/pdf/water_efficiency_leaflet.pdf
5 Hertfordshire organisations or groups interested in engaging in the
climate change agenda can contact bethan.clemence@hertscc.gov.uk
for more information about HCCP.