Climate Change
Hertfordshire turns up the heat to tackle the causes of climate change
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level"1
Scientists are now in agreement that climate change is a serious threat, not just to the environment but also to society and the economy. It is almost certain that recently observed rises in global temperature are a result of human activities contributing to and accelerating the natural process of climate change. 'Man-made' climate change is primarily caused by a rise in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane.
Global air temperatures 1850 to 2006
Source: Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia November 2007
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Total global average temperature has risen by about 0.74°C over the last 100 years, with most of this occurring as rapid warming (0.55°C) since the 1970s. This may not seem much compared with daily fluctuations in temperature but the average global temperature is 5°C warmer than the last Ice Age. Eleven of the last twelve years were also amongst the warmest since records began in 1850.
Future climate change and its impact on Hertfordshire's quality of life
Over the next 40 years, the county may experience:
- A rise in average annual temperatures of 1-2.5°C
- Drier, hotter summers with 15-30% less rainfall
- Warmer, wetter winters. Up to 15% more rainfall
- Increased frequency/severity of extreme events
- More 'very hot' summer days
- More frequent, heavier, winter storms and rainfall
Changes in average seasonal temperature and precipitation will affect the seasonality of our climate, creating a seasonal climate regime that is noticeably different in summer and winter. Evidence of this is found in climate change scenarios produced by the UK Climate Impacts Programme in 2002. We expect these to be updated in 2008 and provide a greater understanding of probabilities and risks associated with climate change at county-level. We anticipate covering this in next year's report.
Responding to climate change
In order that we are able to adapt and respond properly to climate change it is important to recognise and understand how it may impact upon us. Our action is essential now because the climate system responds slowly and is still reacting to the high level of emissions we have already created. Some degree of change is inevitable and we will need to cope with this (known as adaptation). We also need to look at the other side of the coin and reduce the greenhouse gases that cause climate change (known as mitigation).
Climate change indicators
Finding meaningful indicators to monitor climate change at county level remains difficult due to its global nature. A number of climate variables can be used, however to indicate long-term trends. We can also measure the primary cause of climate change within the county; that is greenhouse gases.
Indicator CC1a - Annual Mean Temperature
Hertfordshire's temperature records show a good correlation with the long-term Central England Temperature (CET) records in temporal variation. The results also demonstrate a continuing trend of warming over and above the 1961-90 CET average.
Indicator CC1 - Annual Mean Temperature
Source: Royston (ICENI) Weather Station November 2007 and Met Office Hadley Centre
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The annual-mean CET has warmed by about 0.67°C2 over the last century and it is reasonable to assume that average annual temperatures in the county have risen alongside. Hertfordshire's temperature record also shows that nine of the ten warmest years on record have occurred since 1990 with 2006 being the warmest yet. These statistics are replicated in the CET record. Although Hertfordshire's annual average temperatures were higher than the CET this is to be expected because:
- the climate of the western half of the British Isles is dominated by maritime tropical and maritime polar air producing a cooler temperature. In contrast, climate further east of the country is often influenced by more continental regimes
- the county is in close proximity to London's 'urban heat island' and a surrounding urban sprawl which tends to warm the area.3
Indicator CC1b - Annual total precipitation
Whilst annual average temperatures show a clear long-term warming trend, annual total precipitation (i.e. rain and snow) trends are not so clear. Average annual precipitation varies greatly across the UK with annual totals tending to mask long-term, seasonal trends. Winters in the UK have become wetter since 1860 and summers have become drier - particularly since the 1970s. This seasonal contrast is often strongest in the south and east which can lead to significant water resource problems.
Indicator CC1b - Annual total precipitation (Ppt)
Source: Royston (ICENI) Weather Station November 2007
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The important aspect revealed here is that Hertfordshire receives a great deal less precipitation than the average received across England and Wales. This is to be expected because there is a greater influence of maritime air in the western regions of the UK. This, combined with the effects of mountains and hills to the west of the country, leads to considerably more rainfall than in the east. This highlights the delicate state of water resources within both the county and wider eastern region.
Hertfordshire's Contribution to Climate Change
We have again used two ways of assessing the county's CO2 emissions. Firstly, we use DEFRA's Local and Regional CO2 Emissions Estimates for 2005 to provide CO2 estimates on a district by district basis, broken down into the sector of use (CC2a). The per capita consumption figures for each district further shows domestic sector emissions (CC2b) on an individual basis. Note: whilst these figures do provide an update on last year's indicators, they are not directly comparable with the figures given in the 2006 edition of the Quality of Life Report because of ongoing development of the statistical methodology and source-data.
The second method (CC3) focuses on CO2 emissions arising from the consumption of goods and services in the county, irrespective of where they are produced. This indicator takes a broader view of CO2 emissions, encompassing those produced as a result of consumption. It includes emissions produced by countries that the UK imports from for goods consumed by households or businesses.
Indicator CC2a - CO2 Emissions by Sector
Road transport continues to contribute the largest proportion of CO2 emissions across the county, accounting for 35% (2,986,000 tonnes) of the county's 8,364,000 tonne total. Geographically, the largest contributor of CO2 emissions (the total of all sectors) was St Albans who contributed 1,198,000 tonnes of CO2 in 2005. In contrast, the two districts contributing the least were Broxbourne and Watford with 1,071,000 tonnes of CO2 in 2005.
Indicator CC2a - Hertfordshire Domestic per capita CO2 Emissions
Local and Regional Estimates of CO2 Emissions 2005 - kt CO2 - by sector
Source: Department for Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) November 2007
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Indicator CC2b - Domestic Per Capita CO2 Emissions
A more accurate measure of an individual's contribution to CO2 emissions arising from domestic sources is the per capita figure. Residents in St Albans and Three Rivers were again found to have individually contributed most in the county with 2.7 tonnes of CO2 per person in 2005. Stevenage was again found to have contributed the least with 2.2 tonnes CO2 per person. Overall, five of the ten districts had a higher per capita CO2 emissions figure than the Hertfordshire and East of England average of 2.5 tonnes per person.
Source: Department for Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA) November 2007
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Indicator CC3 - Consumption-based CO2 Emissions
Another way of assessing the impact of consumption is to look at our individual contribution to CO2 emissions. The following chart uses data obtained from the ecological footprinting work4 undertaken by the Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York. 2001 figures were reported in last year's Quality of Life Report, however, calculations have since been refined to present a more accurate and detailed illustration.
As climate change has risen up the political agenda the term 'carbon footprint' is increasingly used within sustainable development discussions. Whilst there are a number of ways of arriving at this measurement, essentially its purpose is to provide a comprehensive account of greenhouse gases contributing to climate change. It uses a consumption perspective and aims to include all CO2 emissions associated with the consumption of a particular good or service in the UK, wherever they occur.
Indicator CC3 - Consumption-based CO2 Emissions
Source: Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York 2007 based on 2001 figures reported in the 2006 Quality of Life Report. Since refined to present a more accurate picture of the CO2 emissions from consumption.
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Per capita, Hertfordshire's average CO2 emissions were 13.17 tonnes. This is almost 11% higher than the UK's 11.87 tonnes per capita average. At a district level, East Hertfordshire continued to show the highest consumption-related CO2 emissions rate at 14.68 tonnes per capita. Stevenage, meanwhile, continued to show the lowest consumption rate with 11.94 but this is still above the UK average.
Schools Carbon Footprint
Since last year's Quality of Life Report, the recognition of the contribution that a school makes in producing CO2 emissions has grown significantly. Whilst they can be a big emitter of CO2, a school can also raise awareness about climate change and promote good habits from an early age. Effectively reducing emissions, however, requires the building of tangible links between sustainable development and issues that are of concern to young people themselves. That is; their personal quality of life, the well-being of their communities and the environment around them.
In April 2006, the Sustainable Development Commission published the 'UK Schools Carbon Footprint Scoping Study'. This study investigated the contribution that UK schools' make towards national CO2 emissions. It estimated that UK schools were responsible for 10.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO2) each year. This is equivalent to 1.32% of the UK's total annual carbon emissions.
Whilst similar information is not yet available for Hertfordshire, the county council has undertaken research during 2005/06 in this field. Results from this research suggests that during this period Hertfordshire schools created around 80% of CO2 emitted from county council-owned buildings. This is roughly equivalent to around 64,000 tonnes of CO2.
Indicator CC3 - Consumption-based CO2 Emissions
School Footprint broken down according to major consumption categories
Source: Sustainable Development Commission, UK Schools Carbon Footprint Scoping Study April 2006
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Hertfordshire's response to climate change
Current initiatives to cut CO2 in the county include;
- Hertfordshire County Council working with St Albans City & District Council on the Carbon Trust's Local Authority Carbon Management Programme. The programme is aimed at identifying ways of cutting CO2 emissions arising from council buildings and services. Both councils commit to reducing CO2 by 25% before 2013.
- East Herts Solar Club was established to encourage solar water heating installations.
- In Stevenage, Employers for the Environment (E4E) was formed with funding from Europe to lower the environmental impact of businesses.
- In Welwyn Hatfield a Carbon Pledge Initiative was set up to encourage carbon reduction.
- The Nottingham Declaration on Climate Change: 9 out of 10 district councils, plus the County Council, have signed up to this pledge which actively tackles climate change by working with others to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
'Climate Change: planning ahead, acting together'
Hertfordshire Forward's Annual Conference5 on Climate Change was held in October 2007. Bringing together over 120 delegates, a number of workshops and presentations considered the impacts of climate change on their organisations. Topics explored include the relationship between climate change and the insurance industry, the NHS, the Environment Agency and the perspectives of young people.
Key outcomes from the conference:
- Organisations will experience significant impacts on day-to-day operations and long-term service delivery
- Some of these impacts are already being felt
- It is essential for organisations to begin planning now
Future partnership working and research
Whilst actions to reduce CO2 emissions are important, it is also essential we prepare for and adapt to the inevitable changes in our climate. In doing so we can strive to ensure that our quality of life remains consistent and even improve.
In 2008 a range of organisations will be working in partnership so that the county will be better prepared for climate change impacts likely to be faced. This includes pioneering research being commissioned by HEF, Hertfordshire County Council and an NHS Trust to assess climate change impacts on the county's health and adult care services.
Climate Change Legislation
In October 2006 the Environment Secretary announced that legislation would be integral to the UK's strategy to tackle climate change. In 2007 the UK government's long-term goal of reducing 60% of CO2 emissions by 2050 was put into statute with the Climate Change Bill. The first of its kind in the world, the Climate Change Bill sets out clear, legally-binding targets to reduce CO2 emissions by the year 2020. There are also targets to make further reductions by 2050 against 1990 levels. At the heart of this legislation lies an effort to meet international and national targets through local action. This will have direct implications for the quality of life in the county as both public and private sector organisations actively work to reduce CO2 emissions. From 2008 local authorities will have to report annually on:
- Performance in meeting CO2 emission reduction targets from their own operations
- Per capita emissions within their area
- Progress in adapting to climate change
Many of these large organisations will also have to participate in the Carbon Reduction Commitment Scheme, a new cap and trade emissions scheme.
1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
2 Hulme, M (2003) Indicators of Climate Change in the UK: Air temperature
in Central England
3 Minimum temperatures tend to be higher in urban areas where maximum
temperatures are often higher. Two main sources of the 'urban
heat island' effect are that construction materials store heat and heat
being released through industrial and domestic energy consumption.
4 Indicator CC4 - Ecological-footprinting - No new data available.
5 Hertfordshire Forward Annual Conference on Hertslink.org