Climate change
We are all contributing to climate change
There is now strong evidence and almost unanimous agreement that significant global warming is occurring faster than can be explained by natural variations.
Human activity has changed greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere by:
- releasing carbon from fossil fuels, i.e. coal, gas and oil, when burnt for energy, heat or transport
- cutting down trees to clear land for agriculture
In the UK carbon emissions come from:
- Business activity - 40%
- Transport - 29%
- Homes - 25%
The biggest carbon emissions source are probably:
- Energy used in the home (heating is the biggest)
- Driving
- Air travel
In our homes, other factors contribute to climate change indirectly. Everything, from food to carpets, uses energy when produced and transported releasing carbon emissions in the process.
The effects on Hertfordshire's quality of life
As a result of the changing climate over the next fifty years it is predicted the county will experience:
- Hotter and drier summers
- Milder and wetter winters
- More extreme climate (e.g. storms, high winds)
- Increased risk of flooding in some areas
If we fail to act or plan properly to adapt to changing climatic conditions all aspects of our quality of life could be affected. Adapting to changing climatic conditions will be a significant challenge but many simple changes will enable us to live comfortably.
Climate change indicators
Finding meaningful indicators to monitor climate change at the Hertfordshire level is difficult due to the global nature of the issue. Nevertheless, measures, like temperature records, can give us an indication of changes in annual mean temperatures to help create a picture of longer term trends. We can also measure levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the county as they are the primary cause of global climate change.
| Possible effects of climate change on our quality of life | |
|---|---|
| Air Quality | Increased levels of ground-level ozone arising from transport emissions. |
| Economy | Opportunities for businesses to exploit the changing climate in tourism and leisure. |
| Employment | Potential employment growth in new industries such as renewable energy. |
| Health | Greater need for protection against sun and heat during the summer months. |
| Energy | Increased generation of energy from renewable sources and less from fossil fuels. An emphasis on energy efficiency and responsible energy use at work and in the home. |
| Housing | Greater need for cooling in existing housing as temperatures rise. Some areas will require greater flood protection. Possible increases to property damage arising from extreme climatic events. |
| Land Use | Increased use of agricultural land for energy crops. Some areas will have subsidence issues as soil moisture content drops. More use of flood plain for flood management. Rising demand on open space for recreation. |
| Transport | More use of public transport, cycling and walking as opposed to using the car. Potential disruption to long-distance supply chain and local transport due to extreme climatic events. |
| Waste | More emphasis on waste minimisation and recycling. Greater need for onsite disposal to reduce transportation to landfill resources. |
| Water | Greater emphasis on water efficiency due to more frequent droughts. More flooding in some areas due to increased levels of winter rainfall and extreme rainfall events. |
| Wildlife | Changes in biodiversity as range of species change through climatic conditions. Some species to migrate further north whilst new ones will migrate to the county. Pressure on some types of trees, e.g. Oak and Beech, due to lack of water resources. |
Indicator CC1 - Annual mean temperature
Temperature records for Hertfordshire show a variation of 1.6°C over the past 32 years, a pattern also reflected in the records for Central England. These figures also show that 4 of the 5 warmest years on record in the county have occurred since 1999. Although these summers are considered unusual, the Met Office1 contends this is a sign of things to come, with current temperatures becoming normal by 2050.
Source: Royston (Iceni) Weather Station November 2006
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Hertfordshire's contribution to climate change
Included here two ways of looking at the county's CO2 emissions. Firstly we use the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affair's (DEFRA)2 'Local and Regional CO2 Emissions Estimates for 2004'. This provides CO2 estimates on a district by district basis broken down into sector of use. The per capita consumption figures for each district authority area then shows domestic sector emissions. The second way focuses on CO2 emissions arising from the consumption of goods and services in the county irrespective of where they are produced. This indicator is important as it takes a broader view of CO2 emissions.
It encompasses those produced as a result of consumption, including emissions produced by countries that the UK imports from for goods consumed by households or businesses.
Indicator CC2a - CO2 Emissions by sector
Road transport contributes the biggest CO2 emissions, accounting for 36% (3,000,000 tonnes) of the county's 8,500,000 tonne total. Geographically, the largest contributors of county-based CO2 emissions were St. Albans, closely followed by East Hertfordshire. Together, these two districts contributed over 1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 in the year. In contrast, Broxbourne, Stevenage and Watford individually contributed least, under 600,000 tonnes, which is less than half the St Albans figure.
Local and regional estimates of C02 emissions 2004 - kt C02 by sector
Source: Department for Food and Rural Affairs November 2006
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Indicator CC2b - Domestic per capita CO2 emissions
A more accurate measure of an individual's contribution to CO2 emissions arising from domestic sources is the per capita figure. Residents in St Albans and Three Rivers individually contributed most in the county; with 2.9 tonnes of CO2 in 2004. Broxbourne and Stevenage contributed the least at 2.1. 6 of the 10 districts were higher than the county and East of England averages at 2.6 tonnes per person.
Source: Department for Food and Rural Affairs November 2006
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Indicator CC3 - Consumption-based CO2 emissions
A more holistic measure of an individual's contribution to CO2 emissions is to explore those arising from the consumption of resources. The figures below are derived from the Ecological Footprinting work undertaken by the Stockholm Environment Institute at the University of York, part of the Ecological Budget UK work sponsored by WWF. Per capita, CO2 county emissions ranged from 14.7 tonnes in East Hertfordshire to 11.9 tonnes in Stevenage.
Hertfordshire consumption based C02 emissions
Source: Ecological footprinting budget 2006
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Indicator CC4 - Ecological footprinting - Measuring our use of the earth's resources3
An Ecological Footprint is a theoretical measurement of the amount of land used in the production of resources consumed. There is a finite space on the planet and this measure helps to show our impact upon others sharing it. Research4 states we 'would require three planets to support the world's consumption if everyone used as many of the Earth's available resources as the average UK resident.'
In 2004, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation, the Earth had 11.4 billion hectares of biologically productive land and sea; i.e. about a quarter of the planet's surface. One global hectare (gha) is a unit within this productive area. With a world average of 2.2 gha per person, our global footprint is larger than available productive land and we are using natural resources quicker than they can be replenished. The land used to produce the resources consumed in our county was calculated to be 5.8 million gha, equivalent to us using a footprint of land 35 times the size of the county. The ecological footprint per Hertfordshire resident is 5.5 gha, is 2% higher than the UK average (around 5.4 gha) but varies by district. The highest is East Hertfordshire (5.94 gha) whilst the lowest is Stevenage (5.13 gha).
The ecological footprint of local authorities in Hertfordshire, the UK and East of England
Source: Hertfordshire Environmental Forum, The Ecological Footprint of Hertfordshire (July 2006)
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Activities to reduce CO2
Hertfordshire has been working in partnership to cut carbon emissions via a range of activities; raising awareness of the issue and encouraging residents to make savings and wiser choices. For example, as CO2 is emitted through waste, its transportation and disposal, WasteAware has helped to reduce waste and increase recycling. Transport policies promote car use reduction whilst energy advisors help cut heating bills. Micro-generation and other low carbon technologies can also make a significant impact on carbon emission levels as localised electricity generation reduces the amount of gas and electricity delivered through the national grid. This is because significant losses are associated with supplying power through transmission. Below is an indication of the environmental and financial savings that can be made by installing some of these technologies and other efficiency measures.
Domestic efficiency measures - estimated costs and savings
| Measure | Avg Cost (£) | Cost saved (£/yr) | Carbon saved(Kg C/yr) | Payback (Yrs) | Homes ('000)† | Total Carbon Saving (MtC/yr) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot water cylinder | 14 | 29 | 53 | 0.5 | 1,137 | 0.1 |
| Cavity wall insulation | 342 | 133 | 242 | 2.6 | 8,500 | 2.1 |
| Loft insulation | 284 | 104 | 190 | 2.7 | 6,186 | 1.2 |
| Improved Heating Controls | 147 | 43 | 77 | 3.4 | 2,102 | 0.2 |
| Draught proofing | 100 | 23 | 43 | 4.3 | 9,793 | 0.4 |
| Micro CHP | 1,571 | 230 | 508 | 6.8 | 12,000 | 6.1 |
| Solid wall insulation | 3,150 | 381 | 694 | 7.5 | 7,479 | 5.2 |
| 'A' rated boiler | 1,500 | 168 | 177 | 8.9 | 17,128 | 3.0 |
| Microwind | 2,263 | 224 | 263 | 10.5 | - | - |
| Ground Source Heat Pump | 4,725 | 368 | 990 | 12.8 | 17,000 | 16.8 |
| Photovoltaic (PV) electricity | 9,844 | 212 | 249 | 46.4 | 9,892 | 2.5 |
| Solar water heating | 2,625 | 48 | 88 | 54.7 | 19,330 | 1.7 |
| Windows (Single to Double Glazing) | 4,000 | 41 | 26 | 97.6 | 101,746 | 1.7 |
Source: First Draft Illustrative Mix of Measures for EEC 2008-11
(DEFRA) 2006 and †Buildings Research Establishment (BRE) 2005
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1 The Met office website - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk
2 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs - www.defra.gov.uk
4 Ecofootprinting Report (pdf, 3.5mb)
3 World Wildlife Fund - Counting Consumption